The bitcoin market in the first half of this year was a bit speechless. On the whole, there are ups and downs. The bitcoin price has dropped from around 8000 to 3800, and then it has been drawn back and then touched 10,000 points. It has dropped to about 9000–10000 points and hovered. The market situation is unthinkable. Many people are very depressed this year. Why do everyone say that Bitcoin will hit the 20,000 mark after hitting 10,000 points? Everyone is optimistic about this market, but it is not going well. The reason is tangled, how to say, it is very complicated, let’s sort it out.
First of all, although Bitcoin has a certain degree of hedging and hedging, there is an important issue: the official will not be used as a value reserve because of the existence of Bitcoin. At least at present, the central bank rarely makes Bitcoin reserves. Not only Bitcoin, but all digital currencies are not favored by the authorities. You may say that gold is also a “commodity attribute”, and bitcoin is not a “commodity attribute”. Why can gold be stored by the central bank, but bitcoin is not stored by the central bank? It’s simple: the current blockchain security performance is completely unable to meet the storage requirements of the central bank, and the stability of the blockchain network is far less than gold.
What I said is valid. Security, for example, an An account is frequently stolen. Okay, this question is perfectly explained. Uh uh
Stability needs to be detailed. First, if you leave the Bitcoin network, the central bank’s storage of Bitcoin will become meaningless. We assume that bitcoin has monetary attributes, then bitcoin will be regarded as gold and become the basis of value. So, how does Bitcoin guarantee value? Rely on mining? If the value can be guaranteed in this way, then there is no need to develop financial services. Only the open mining of the Bitcoin network can create a lot of wealth value for the central bank, which is unrealistic. At this time, bitcoin and gold are one of the credit foundations of paper money, so the result of guaranteeing value is that both bitcoin and gold will serve the price of paper money, and both bitcoin and gold will open futures hedging at the same time. Gold does not have a network, at least to ensure that the market circulation of physical goods can be delayed delivery, Bitcoin without network support is nothing… like an isolated blockchain, no proof of work, no proof of equity, how to explain What value does this bitcoin have? Assuming that Satoshi’s 980,000 currency account is active, there is still a chance for the currency price to surge. But the problem is that the 980,000 coins are locked in a block account, which is equivalent to the account offline. Once the block is upgraded, is it necessary to engage in a hard fork? After the fork, is this bitcoin still bitcoin? The Bitcoin network has been hard-forked so many times, and it’s not a long memory yet? Therefore, for security reasons, it is impossible for the central bank to allow Bitcoin storage institutions to connect to the block network, but Bitcoin can only prove its value by connecting to the block network. That being said, according to this point, even if Bitcoin becomes the basis of value, the central bank will not dare to save.
Furthermore, the cost of bitcoin’s network services is also very alarming. In order to store bitcoin, the central bank needs to build a dedicated digital currency storage server, server site, power supply, dedicated network, and full-time staff guards. Speaking of which, everyone will find that the cost of Bitcoin storage actually exceeds the cost of gold storage? ? ? What the hell is this? The chemical properties of gold ensure that loss-free storage is possible as long as the environment is not extremely harsh, and security professionals do not need a high cost. The cost of the same bitcoin server + venue has already skyrocketed. The storage security personnel needed are high-end talents in the IT industry. Think about how much a person needs to cost. And not only these, but also with other security personnel to ensure the safety of these people, but also to prevent the transfer of Bitcoin from the network. Wait a minute, when it comes to this, it’s already starting to get bigger. This does not count the daily loss of water and electricity. And there is one more important thing: the server is regularly upgraded, regardless of hardware and software, which upgrade cost is acceptable. Moreover, IT electronics also needs special certifications, etc., which is very complicated. and so:
Touting the low cost of bitcoin, it is more suitable for people who do value storage. I really don’t want to say that you are kicked by donkeys?
Okay, go on. We do not talk about these cost issues. As I said just now, Bitcoin will leave the blockchain network worthless. Here is another question: How dare you guarantee that more than 51% of the network will not be destroyed? Can you guarantee that the network will not be completely paralyzed under the global nuclear war? Can you guarantee that the network stays alive when the carrier is paralyzed? Can you guarantee that the network will not be paralyzed when the root server fails? There are too many cases of network paralysis, even if the Sino-US submarine optical cable is cut off with a knife, it is also a major event to paralyze the network. So looking at gold, unless a nuclear bomb comes to evaporate gold into air, no matter how much you toss about it, gold is these golds, and there will be no change.
Having said so much, it is actually to tell everyone that Bitcoin has no basis to become a target for hedging and hedging, although there is now such a performance.
In addition to the fundamentals of Bitcoin, there is another major reason, which is the common problem that digital currencies currently have: the mark of zhuangzhuang is too serious, and the orientation of value investment is unknown. Most people shouted: “Consensus” and “Faith”, but most of the things they do are arrogant things like spread arbitrage. False consensus and false beliefs are very serious in the currency circle. The most typical case is: radar coin. As we approach the timetable for radar currency cash out, there will be more eye-catching events.
So, what I want to say here is, don’t have illusions about the impact of Bitcoin on 20,000. Let’s first see if we can stand on it.